excess mortality europe
August 4th, 2021 | 
Author: President Trump has claimed that âEuropeâ 1 has had a 33% higher rate of excess mortality than the US. It is unclear what measure of excess mortality and which comparison period he was using â he may have been considering excess deaths per capita. Cities of central and eastern Europe have suffered high excess mortality in the autumn and winter period; Sofia (112.5%) and Warsaw (103.8%) had the highest weekly excess mortality ⦠Though most of those victims have been older than 65, the number of deaths among Europeans aged 45-64 was 40% higher than usual in early April 2020. In contrast, many other European countries currently report a post winter wave negative excess mortality. New research publication on excess mortality by Janine Aron and John Muellbauer: In this follow-up article for VoxEU the two researchers find that Europeâs cumulative excess mortality rate from March to July is 28% lower than the US rate. The âsurveillanceâ package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality. Claim: âExcess mortality in Europe this year is 33% higher than the United States â evidence that the tragic cost of this virus is higher in other Western nations." We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period MarchâApril 2020. These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was similar to some Eastern European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was much higher, suggesting much higher COVID-19 prevalence. One group, including the U.K., the Netherlands and Spain, experienced extremely high excess mortality. Concerningly, however, Israel has seen a renewed and continued increase in all-cause mortality since mid-February; in fact, by March 21, Israel reported the highest excess mortality of all countries participating in Euromomo. The Europe experienced a 50-percent rise in excess mortality over a week in March and April due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to data released ⦠Expected deaths thus far, were 261,375. That is an increase/decrease of 99,302 deaths (18.2%). The âall agesâ P-score measure of excess mortality takes (significant) 15 account of this and in Europe was 28% lower than in the US. In Europe, roughly three groups of countries emerge in terms of fatalities. A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. United States reported 644,110 deaths of 45-64 ages for year 2020. Even on the cruder per capita figure, excess mortality in Europe was 21% lower than in the US. Introduction. Different from European countries There are normally more deaths in the winter than in the summer, precisely because of respiratory tract infections like the flu, but also for other reasons. This article presents empirical evidence of âexcess mortalityâ â this means the numbers of deaths exceeding the expected numbers of deaths in a given time period â in Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, roughly defined as February to ⦠The new figures revealed that out of all major cities, Madrid was the worst hit across Europe - recording an excess mortality rate of 432.7 per cent. In week 11, Italy had high excess mortality, and it has had very high excess since then. Excess deaths during Europeâs coronavirus outbreak were highest in England, according to U.K. analysis ... many scientists consider excess mortality a more reliable way to ⦠The European Commission publishes data on excess mortality calculated as the percentage of additional mortality in 2020 compared to the baseline period 2016 to 2019. In Germany, the excess mortality rate â the number of deaths above the expected mortality rate â remained below that of neighboring European countries. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. In March, the number of deaths increased rapidly in some European countries, significantly exceeding the average mortality rate in Europe from 2016 to 2019. Looking at excess deaths data increases the apparent COVID-19 death toll for all countries, including England and Wales. Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ânormalâ conditions. Weekly estimated excess deaths by ⦠1 In this case, weâre interested in how the number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compares to the deaths we would have expected had the pandemic not occurred â a crucial ⦠The US excess mortality rate from COVID-19 is substantially worse than Europeâs The excess observed during the pandemic was higher than excesses noted in the past 5 years. Most disturbing is the comparative story for the 15-64 age group, where Englandâs relative record in These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was lower than in several Eastern European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was higher, suggesting higher COVID-19 prevalence. The follow-up of mortality and excess mortality is an important tool on public health management, as it allows authorities to know how many people die, why they die, and how it trends for future years. 27 July 2021 â To answer the question whether COVID-19 will lead to excess mortality, we are monitoring the situation with an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional death figures in Germany. Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a ⦠Europe PMC is an archive of life sciences journal literature. Scandinavian and other northern European countries are relatively unaffected by the problem. Using data from 1988 to 97, relative excess winter mortality is found to be highest in southern Europe, Ireland, and the UK, where seasonality in mortality of 18%â28% is calculated (see table 6). The new figures revealed that out of all major cities, Madrid was the worst hit across Europe - recording an excess mortality rate of 432.7 per cent. An excess mortality could possibly give indications of whether Corona deaths have not been picked up by the official statistics. The annual excess mortality for the European Union, in 2020, was around 12 % over the 2016-2019 average. The results were published online in the specialist journaleLife . A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The excess mortality rate decreased progressively across Europe and all but disappeared by the beginning of May. Though most of those victims have been older than 65, the number of deaths among Europeans aged 45-64 was 40% higher than usual in early April 2020. For some of the countries that publish data on excess deaths, we have been able to break the numbers down by region. Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption Anja Schmidta,1, Bart Ostrob,c, Kenneth S. Carslawa, Marjorie Wilsona, Thorvaldur Thordarsond, Graham W. Manna,e, and Adrian J. Simmonsf aSchool of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; bCentre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology, E-08003 England has experienced one of the highest excess in all-cause mortality in Europe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Every week (on Thursday) the Euro MOMO project (European MOnitoring of excess MOrtality) publishes a report of mortality statistics across the EU, including stratification by age group. Objective: This study examined cumulative excess mortality in European countries in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and characterized the dynamics of the pandemic in different countries, focusing on Hungary and the Central and Eastern European region.Methods: Age-standardized cumulative excess mortality was calculated based on weekly mortality data from the EUROSTAT ⦠1 No likely cause was identified because climatic circumstances, air pollution levels, and physician visits for influenza-like illnesses were unremarkable. These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was lower than in several Eastern European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was higher, suggesting higher COVID-19 prevalence. Most countries in Europe have been hit harder by the pandemic than Sweden, according to a recent compilation of excess mortality. Accordingly, with around 50 additional deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the pandemic, Germany experienced a much lower excess mortality than surrounding European countries. The CPP emissions also contribute to excess mortality outside the EU-28, i.e. In Italy, the mortality excesses attributable to flu epidemics during the winter seasons 2014/15 and 2016/17 were the highest in Europe: respectively 33.3 and 41. An analysis by The Economist of mortality data from 46 countries, including Israel and some in Central Asia, suggests that between March and May 2020 there were about 220,000 âexcess ⦠all-cause age-speciï¬c excess mortality in coun-tries in Europe through a standardised ap-proach. A report published in the Journal of the American Medical Association has compared Covid-19 deaths and excess all-cause mortality in the United ⦠56 countries and 198 subnational units have reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes for parts of 2020 and for prior years. Using mortality estimates for individuals aged 65-74, at COVID-19 PAE of 40%, we estimated 3,533, 8,837 and 17,679 excess deaths at RIE of 1.2, 1.5 and 2 respectively, when extrapolating to the US population of this age group (61,346,445 individuals) . These Latin American countries have much younger populations compared to the European and North American countries, which is why the excess mortality per 100,000 inhabitants there was similar to some Eastern European countries, but the relative increase in mortality was much higher, suggesting much higher COVID-19 prevalence. The highest peak in weekly excess mortality in 2020 was recorded in Spain (142.9% in the week ending 3 April), with Bulgaria recording the second highest of 112.3% in the week ending 27 November. The excess mortality rate decreased progressively across Europe and all but disappeared by the beginning of May. The European Detailed Mortality Database (DMDB) has been updated with the latest available data on causes of death. 1. Background This aggregated population study of 219 regions in 11 European countries investigated the effect of the seemingly quasi-randomly assigned school winter holiday week on excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic during spring 2020. Analysing 2020 mortality, we concluded that we had 123,578 deaths during the year, compared with 112,373 in 2019 and 113,597 in 2018. To date, for the year 2021, United States reported 314,942 deaths of 45-64 ages. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns last year, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1 per cent and 16.2 per cent respectively. The excess mortality rate was negative in January and February. In April 2020, mortality figures were markedly higher than the average across previous years. By the week ending 12 February 2021, all UK nations were experiencing rapidly declining excess mortality, with Wales entering below average levels of mortality at negative 3.1% (fewer deaths than the five-year average for the same time period Spain, France, England and Wales, Italy). Although the excess mortality was observed during the entire year, across Europe, the peaks and intensity of outbreaks varied greatly across countries. We describe all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality during the season 2017/18 in Europe. In fact, the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in 2020 (about 7400) was higher than the number of all excess deaths observed in 2020 with respect to 2019 (6143). So the difference in relative death rates by age, found here, could be because mortality directly caused by Covid-19 in younger people was relatively higher here than elsewhere in Europe, or it could be because excess deaths from non-Covid causes were relatively higher here than elsewhere, or some combination of the two. Every week (on Thursday) the Euro MOMO project (European MOnitoring of excess MOrtality) publishes a report of mortality statistics across the EU, including stratification by age group. The US excess mortality rate from COVID-19 is substantially worse than Europe's. Coronavirus: England's 'excess deaths' among the highest in Europe. They launched the COVID-19 Mortality (C-MOR) Consortium which welcomed countries from around the world and focused on measuring excess mortality. Using the sheer numbers, Europeâs raw excess mortality is 32% higher than the U.S.âs â similar to Trumpâs downwardly revised claim of 33%. Finally, we assessed to what extent partial mortality information from two German states (Hesse, Berlin) and from 19 Italian cities, regularly explored by the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action network (EuroMOMO) (20, 21), represents each country as a whole. both within and outside Europe adding up to 16 800 (CI95 14 800â18 700) per year. Objectives: Weekly monitoring of European all-cause excess mortality, the EuroMOMO network, observed high excess mortality during the influenza B/Yamagata dominated 2017/18 winter season, especially among elderly. A comparative analysis on the excess mortality in U.S. and Europe conducted by FactCheck.org said, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between Feb. 1 and Aug. 8, there have been between 174,930 and 235,728 excess deaths across the country, for a midpoint value of 205,329 deaths. Of major cities, Europe's highest peak excess mortality was in Madrid at 432.7% in the week ending 27 March - while Birmingham had the UK's highest at ⦠In contrast, central and eastern European countries had the highest levels of excess mortality in Europe during the second half of 2020. New mortality figures suggest England has been as badly affected as Spain and Italy by the COVID-19 outbreak. But in the Nordic countries, Sweden is by far the highest. Across Europe, over two million deaths can be attributed to excess winter mortality in the period 2002/2003 to 2010/2011. We found stepwise elevated excess mortality by level of care during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden, suggesting that level of frailty or comorbidities plays a more important role than age for COVID-19 associated deaths. Portugal had âabove expectedâ mortality in weeks 13 and 14. The results were published online in the specialist journaleLife . The European Commission publishes data on excess mortality calculated as the percentage of additional mortality in 2020 compared to the baseline period 2016 to 2019. Expected deaths were 544,808 . The US has 4% of the world's population but 21% of the global COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths. Will the UK have the worst excess mortality in Europe? A comparative analysis on the excess mortality in U.S. and Europe conducted by FactCheck.org said, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between Feb. 1 and Aug. 8, there have been between 174,930 and 235,728 excess deaths across the country, for a midpoint value of 205,329 deaths. Accordingly, with around 50 additional deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the pandemic, Germany experienced a much lower excess mortality than surrounding European countries. A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Early Results from Europe. However, COVID-19 confirmed mortality (CCM) is considered an unreliable indicator of COVID-19 deaths because of national health care systemsâ different capacities to correctly identify people who actually died of the disease. Over a longer period from March 2 to April 26, the Insee said more than 80 percent of the excess mortality jointly registered in 21 European countries was ⦠As COVID-19 emerged, the excess in all-cause mortality rapidly increased, starting in March 2020. Covid-19 Has Failed to Cause Excess Mortality in Europe, In Fact Overall Deaths Are Down From Previous Years Deaths very mildly above average only in Italy but nothing like in catastrophic 2017 (or even 2018 or 2019 for that matter) Mind Virus-19 Off Guardian31 Mar 20420312 Since 2009, the European network for monitoring of excess mortality for public health action, EuroMOMO (www.euromomo.eu), has monitored weekly all-cause, age-specific mortality in real-time in participating European countries and provided pooled estimates of excess mortality (observed minus expected), using the EuroMOMO model . The indicator rose further in November 2020 in all EU Member States with available data. The table below shows that if the UKâs excess death rates by age are applied to Spainâs population, Spain would have 54,217 excess deaths, rather than the 48,399 it actually has. The excess mortality in the EU reaching +8% in September and +17% in October above the average. Bulgaria had the highest excess mortality in the European Union in April 2021, at 76 per cent compared with an EU average of 20.9 per cent, according to figures released on ⦠To date, for the year 2021, United States reported 314,942 deaths of 45-64 ages. EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats. United States reported 644,110 deaths of 45-64 ages for year 2020. Fifty three country-years of detailed mortality information have been added to the database since the last update, including figures from Montenegro for the first time. That is an increase/decrease of 99,302 deaths (18.2%). Early Results from Europe. Flu, any excess mortality observed in 2020 will inevitably be interpreted as consequences (direct and indirect) of the COVID-19 pandemic, unquestionably the major event in 2020. This type of analysis would enable the researchers to assess all-cause deaths during the pandemic along with all-cause deaths during the same period in previous years. Monitoring excess mortality in Europe. Relative age-standardised mortality rates (rASMRs) are weekly measures of excess mortality using age-standardised mortality rates that are standardised to the 2013 European standard population. In Germany, the excess mortality rate â the number of deaths above the expected mortality rate â remained below that of neighboring European countries. Claim: âThe excess mortality rate is among the best in the whole world." Excess mortality As the pandemic has progressed, there has been a growing focus on excess mortality as a more reliable metric for comparing countries.15 Excess mortality provides an estimate of the additional number of deaths within a given time period in a ⦠We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period MarchâApril 2020. This pandemic rapidly spread in a series of pandemic waves that gripped the world beginning in early 1918 . At the moment, data is available for up to the 12th of April (week 15). The government statistics revealed that foreigners had an excess mortality rate 2.1 times higher than native French in 2020, with numbers particularly high for migrants from certain areas during the first wave of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic in the Spring of that year.. - There are myths circulating that Sweden would be among the worst affected by covid-19 in Europe. This would suggest that Spain fared 11% better than the UKâs and make the UK the most affected of these countries. The president keeps saying the excess death rate during the pandemic is higher in Europe ⦠Apparently, we had important excess mortality in 2020, when compared with the last two years, between 9,981 and 11,205 deaths. A secondary aim was to evaluate the impact of stringency and timing of the government responses to the early inflow of infected cases. One result: The excess mortality â the number of deaths above the mortality that can usually be expected â was lower in Germany than in neighboring European countries. In the UK, Birmingham recorded the highest peak of any major British city with an excess mortality rate of 249.7 per cent. In November 2020, Sweden, one of the the European countries worst hit by the coronavirus, has seen excess mortality of 10 percent, according to Statistics Sweden. Our analysis of excess mortality follows three steps. Portugal, together with Holland and Spain, was one of the European countries that, in early February, had âsubstantial excess mortalityâ related to the covid-19 pandemic, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Excess Mortality Data Shows Trump Is Lying About Covid-19 Being More Deadly in Europe. This measure was developed by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) and was originally described in working paper 111 (PDF, 1.07MB) . 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